Dalal Street Week Ahead: Nifty in Uncharted Territory, Protect Profits at Higher Levels

Dalal Street Week Ahead: Nifty in Uncharted Territory, Protect Profits at Higher Levels

After multiple tests, the Indian equity markets have finally attempted a long-awaited breakout by surpassing the prior top of 18,887 and closing near the weekly high point. Although the market breadth improved slightly, volatility in the markets remains low at one of its lowest points. The Nifty trading range has expanded by moving in a 555-point range. The financial sector continues to underperform the frontline Nifty. However, the headlining index closed on a strong note, posting a net gain of 523.55 points (+2.80%) on a weekly basis. In addition, the Nifty closed the month with a net monthly gain of 654.65 points (+3.53%). The banking and financial space have significantly underperformed the Nifty50 until now, but the Bank Nifty ended on a strong note and is on the verge of a breakout. For a sustainable breakout, the banking index needs to confirm with the Nifty and attempt a breakout as well. Nifty has raised its support level to 19,000, which is likely to provide support in the event of any consolidation. The volatility remained low, with the India VIX dropping by 3.87% to 10.80, one of the lowest points seen in recent years. Participants are advised to stay extremely vigilant and protect profits at current levels. The coming week may start on a positive note, but it is crucial for the Nifty to remain above 18,900 levels to confirm the breakout. The resistance points for the week are likely to be at 19,280 and 19,400, while the support levels are expected to be at 18,900 and 18,680. As the index now trades in uncharted territory, the trading range is likely to be wider than usual. The weekly RSI stands at 68.14 and continues to remain neutral, showing no divergence against the price. The weekly MACD is positive and trades above its signal line, indicating a bullish sentiment. The pattern analysis of the weekly chart shows that the Nifty has finally attempted a breakout by surpassing and closing above the prior top of 18,887, which is now expected to act as a support level in the event of any consolidation. The derivatives data also shows that the maximum PUT OI built up at 19,000, making the zone of 18,900-19,000 an immediate support area for the market. If the upside continues, high-beta pockets such as banks, auto, energy, IT, and pharma are expected to outperform the broader markets. It is recommended to remain stock-specific while chasing the up move and also protect profits at higher levels. The analysis of Relative Rotation Graphs (RRG) shows that the Realty, Auto, Consumption, and MidCap 100 index are inside the leading quadrant, indicating their relative outperformance. Nifty FMCG, Financial Services, PSE, and BankNifty remain inside the weakening quadrant, showing no signs of improvement in their relative momentum against the broader Nifty 500 index. The Infrastructure index is also inside the weakening quadrant, but it is seen improving in its relative momentum. The Nifty Pharma index has rolled inside the weakening quadrant, while the PSU Bank, Services Sector, and Commodities indices continue to languish inside the lagging quadrant. The IT Index is also inside the lagging quadrant but showing strong improvement in its relative momentum. The Energy Index is seen losing its momentum while staying inside the improving quadrant, while the Nifty Metal and Media indices are comfortably placed inside the improving quadrant. In conclusion, the Indian equity markets have attempted a breakout with the Nifty closing near the weekly high. Volatility remains low, and support levels are at 19,000. Resistance points for the week are likely to be at 19,280 and 19,400, while support levels are expected at 18,900 and 18,680. It is advised to remain stock-specific while pursuing the up move and protect profits at higher levels. The analysis of relative rotation graphs indicates the relative outperformance of sectors such as Realty, Auto, Consumption, and MidCap 100, while sectors like FMCG, Financial Services, PSE, and BankNifty show no signs of improvement in their relative momentum. The Infrastructure index is improving, while the Nifty Pharma, PSU Bank, Services Sector, and Commodities indices continue to lag. The IT Index shows improvement in relative momentum, while the Energy Index is losing momentum. The Nifty Metal and Media indices are in the improving quadrant. It should be noted that relative rotation graphs should not be directly used as buy or sell signals.

TIS Staff

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