Nearly 50,000 Russian men have died in the war in Ukraine, according to the first independent statistical analysis of Russia’s war dead. Two independent Russian media outlets, Mediazona and Meduza, working with a data scientist from Germany’s Tübingen University, used Russian government data to shed light on one of Moscow’s closest-held secrets — the true human cost of its invasion of Ukraine.
To determine the casualty count, the analysis utilized a statistical concept called excess mortality, which was popularized during the COVID-19 pandemic. By examining inheritance records and official mortality data, the researchers estimated the number of additional deaths of men under 50 between February 2022 and May 2023 compared to the expected death rate.
Both Moscow and Kyiv have refrained from providing timely data on military losses, and each side has downplayed the other’s casualties. While Russia has publicly acknowledged the deaths of just over 6,000 soldiers, reports on military losses have been suppressed in Russian media. As a result, documenting the true number of casualties has become an act of defiance that comes with the risk of harassment and potential criminal charges.
Despite these challenges, Mediazona, the BBC’s Russian Service, and a network of volunteers have compiled a database of confirmed war deaths by utilizing social media posts and photographs of cemeteries across Russia. As of July 7, they had identified 27,423 deceased Russian soldiers.
The media outlets then obtained records of inheritance cases filed with Russian authorities to obtain a more comprehensive tally. Their analysis of the National Probate Registry data, which covered deaths between 2014 and May 2023, revealed a surge in inheritance cases in 2022 for males aged 15 to 49, with the number peaking at 47,000 by May 27, 2023.
This surge aligns with a May estimate by the White House, which stated that more than 20,000 Russians had been killed in Ukraine since December. However, other intelligence assessments from the United States and the United Kingdom put the overall number of Russian deaths higher. In February, the UK Ministry of Defense estimated that approximately 40,000 to 60,000 Russians had likely been killed in the war. Meanwhile, a leaked assessment from the US Defense Intelligence Agency suggested that the number of Russians killed in action in the war’s first year ranged from 35,000 to 43,000.
The independent analysis conducted by Mediazona, Meduza, and the data scientist from Tübingen University has provided valuable insights into the human cost of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. It has also exposed the Russian government’s attempts to conceal the true casualties. Better understanding the casualties is crucial for acknowledging the reality of the conflict and working towards a resolution.
