China and India, two of the world’s most populous countries, are burning record amounts of fossil fuels this year. Despite installing record renewable power generation capacity, the growth in energy consumption for services like air conditioning, heating, cooking, lighting, power, and transport is so vast that both fossil fuels and renewables are being consumed simultaneously.
China and India are pursuing an “all of the above” approach to economic development and energy security. They are striving to raise their living standards closer to those enjoyed by advanced economies, and this increased energy consumption is a natural consequence of this pursuit.
Historically, the transition from a pre-modern agricultural economy to a modern urban and industrial one has always been accompanied by a significant increase in energy consumption. As China and India aspire to reach living standards similar to those in North America and Europe, it is likely that their energy consumption will continue to grow rapidly.
In 2022, the populations of China and India were each similar to the total populations of countries in the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD). However, total primary energy consumption in China and India was far lower than in the OECD. Each person in China consumed only 66% of the energy consumed by their counterparts in the OECD, while in India, the figure was just 15%. These figures even overstate the energy consumption locally since both China and India export a significant proportion of their energy-intensive manufactured output to the OECD.
The growing energy demand in China and India has created the need for more energy from all sources. Even as both countries invest in renewable generation from wind, solar, and hydro, they are also increasing their use of indigenous coal, importing more oil and gas, and utilizing nuclear power. This trajectory is similar to the rapid growth experienced by the United States and Western Europe between the 1950s and 1970s.
While the use of renewables and gas has displaced coal and to a lesser extent oil in the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) countries, total energy consumption has continued to grow rapidly in China and India. Renewables and gas have served as complements to other fossil fuels, ensuring that energy remains affordable and reliable despite increasing consumption.
Currently, fossil fuels still account for a significant percentage of primary energy consumption in both China and India. However, increased investment in renewable energy sources indicates a gradual shift towards substituting fossil fuels with zero-emission alternatives in the future. Nonetheless, given their current stage of development, this shift may still be several years away for China and possibly decades away for India.
China and India’s dependence on fossil fuels is particularly significant given their large populations and the potential for continued economic and industrial growth. Sub-Saharan Africa, which is even further behind in the development process, is projected to experience significant population growth and has the potential for even greater increases in energy consumption in the future.
Policymakers from OECD countries are urging China and India to accelerate their transition from fossil fuels to zero-emission alternatives. However, the priority for governments in China and India is to increase access to energy services and ensure that energy remains affordable and reliable. They are following the example of the OECD nations, which have historically prioritized economic growth and energy access.
In conclusion, while China and India are making progress in renewable energy growth, the transition from fossil fuels to zero-emission alternatives is a complex and slow process. The enormous energy needs of these countries, coupled with their aspirations for economic development and increased living standards, necessitate the use of both fossil fuels and renewable energy sources. It is essential to recognize the challenges and inertia involved in the energy transition and work towards finding sustainable solutions for the future.
