In a recent study published in Nature Geoscience, researchers from the University of Bristol used supercomputer climate models to predict the formation of a future supercontinent, named Pangea Ultima (or Pangea Proxima), 250 million years from now. The study suggests that this future supercontinent will bring extreme temperatures, rendering it uninhabitable for mammals. Understanding how Earth’s climate might change due to natural processes is crucial, and this study provides insights that are distinct from contemporary climate change concerns.
The study highlights two primary factors contributing to the dramatic increase in Earth’s temperatures 250 million years from now. First, the researchers expect heightened volcanism resulting from the tectonic activity that merges all continents together. Volcanoes typically act as temperature regulators by releasing carbon dioxide, which naturally warms the planet. However, an excess of volcanism can lead to an overabundance of carbon dioxide, causing significant temperature spikes. Second, as our sun ages, it is anticipated to emit more energy and heat, contributing to the rise in temperatures.
Dr. Alexander Farnsworth, a senior research associate at the University of Bristol and lead author of the study, explains that the emergence of the new supercontinent would result in a triple whammy of factors: the continentality effect, hotter sun, and increased CO2 in the atmosphere, all leading to a significant heat increase for much of the planet.
The predicted outcome is a hostile environment devoid of food and water sources for mammals. This includes widespread temperatures ranging between 40 to 50 degrees Celsius, making it impossible for humans and many other species to survive.
The researchers relied on computer climate models to simulate the environmental conditions of Pangea Ultima, taking into account factors such as humidity, rainfall, wind patterns, and temperatures. They also considered initial and concluding CO2 levels based on biological processes, ocean chemistry, and tectonic activity.
Despite concerns about contemporary human-induced climate change, the Earth is expected to remain habitable until the emergence of Pangea Ultima. Mammals, including humans, have survived on Earth for millennia due to their capacity to adapt to varying climate conditions. However, they cannot enhance their survivability in extreme heat, as evolution has already adapted them to endure cold temperatures.
Dr. Farnsworth paints a grim picture of the distant future, stating that carbon dioxide levels could be double the current levels. Additionally, with the sun emitting about 2.5% more radiation and the supercontinent primarily located in the hot, humid tropics, much of the planet could be facing temperatures between 40°C to 70°C.
