India’s economic growth is projected to decelerate in 2024 as the country faces global tensions and uncertainty in the geopolitical landscape. The current estimate puts the growth rate at 6.8%, primarily driven by government-led infrastructure projects and robust private consumption. However, India is expected to take a breather in terms of growth momentum in 2024. The global turmoil and economic fragmentation are likely to impact India’s exports, which have already been subdued due to tepid global trade. Private capital expenditure is expected to pick up in the second half of the fiscal year, following the conclusion of the elections. On the other hand, consumption may experience a slowdown, particularly in urban areas where leveraged consumption and high interest rates persist. The Reserve Bank of India is anticipated to implement a shallow rate-cutting cycle in 2024 to support growth. Although the government has played a significant role in driving capital expenditure, it is crucial for them to present a responsible fiscal consolidation road map. The fiscal deficit is expected to be reduced from 5.9% to 5.3%, indicating a rebalancing of government finances. Additionally, the government may continue to support key sectors such as infrastructure, production-linked incentives, and manufacturing to seize the opportunity presented by the China plus one strategy. The export sector, however, may face challenges due to weak global demand, especially in developed markets like the US and Japan. While services exports have shown resilience, merchandise exports are unlikely to recover substantially without a stronger growth momentum in these regions. India’s growth story is expected to be led by private capital expenditure in new sunrise sectors such as space defense and electronics manufacturing. The country has already benefited from the shift of production facilities from China to other regions in Asia. In terms of reforms, it is anticipated that the government will prioritize fiscal responsibility and job creation. The Reserve Bank of India, considering the relatively stable and decent growth, may adopt a cautious approach to rate cuts, gradually reducing interest rates to stimulate economic activity. Overall, India aims to strike a balance between growth and inflation management, with inflation expected to be below 5% in 2024. The government’s focus on reforms and the Reserve Bank’s accommodative monetary policy are expected to support India’s economic performance in the coming year.