The days that start with chilly mornings which then build up into rather blistering hot days by noon or afternoon are now almost over. Mercury has started to soar in many parts of the State with Kannur and Punalur setting the trend ahead of the summer. As per the readings of the automatic weather stations under the India Meteorological Department (IMD), Kannur is leading the table of highest recorded day temperatures, with mercury hovering around 37-38 °C in the first week of February. Even in the manual observatories of the IMD, the maximum day temperature being recorded during the day is almost 2°C above the normal. There is also a marked increase in the minimum temperature with mercury steadily climbing in the early mornings.

The monthly forecast issued by the IMD for February warns of above-normal maximum and minimum temperatures in Kerala, while normal to below-normal maximum temperatures are forecast in neighbouring States.

According to the Bureau of Meteorology, Australia, El Niño conditions are still prevailing over the equatorial Pacific and the sea-surface temperatures are warmer than normal over most of the tropical and equatorial Pacific.

Further, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) has returned to neutral, with the latest weekly IOD index (February 4) being below +0.4 °C (the positive IOD threshold) for the second consecutive week. The positive IOD has been mitigating the drying effect of El Niño in the Indian subcontinent.

With the weakening of IOD and El Niño still continuing in the Pacific Ocean, more warmer days can be expected in the coming weeks, says an IMD scientist. Plus, the absence of occasional winter rain and relatively high humidity, coupled with rising temperatures, are expected to push the heat index (also known as ‘real feel’ temperature) over the 45°C mark at many places by this month itself, according to the scientist.