The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecasted “above normal” rain for the June-September monsoon, bringing positive prospects for agricultural harvest and potentially easing inflationary pressure while also boosting economic growth. The uneven rain in 2023, primarily attributed to the El Niño effect, resulted in patchy farm output and elevated food prices, preventing the central bank from reducing interest rates. The IMD predicts that rainfall in the country’s southwest will be 106% of the long period average (LPA), with a margin of error of 5%. The department’s definition of average or normal rainfall falls within the range of 96% to 104% of a 50-year average of 87 cm for the season. According to the director general of meteorology, Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, years when La Niña follows El Niño (such as this year) have historically experienced more than normal rainfall during the monsoon season. Historical data spanning from 1951 to 2023 shows that all nine such years recorded above-normal rains. El Niño conditions, which are associated with deficient rainfall in India, are currently at a moderate level and are expected to transition to La Niña by August-September, raising hopes for normal rainfall. The weather office expects above-normal seasonal rainfall across most parts of the country, with the exception of some areas in the northwest, east, and northeast India, where it is likely to be below normal. The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions, currently neutral, are predicted to turn positive during the monsoon season, indicating generous rainfall. The IMD also indicated other weather phenomena that point towards abundant rain, such as below-normal extent of snow cover in the northern hemisphere from January to March. The southwest monsoon plays a crucial role in India’s agriculture sector, accounting for about 70% of the country’s yearly rain. It is vital for the sector, which contributes 14% to India’s GDP and supports more than half of its 1.4 billion population. Private forecaster Skymet has also predicted a “normal” monsoon this year, with rainfall expected to reach 102% of the LPA. Geographically, Skymet expects sufficient rainfall in the south, west, and northwest regions. However, the eastern states of Bihar, Jharkhand, Odisha, and West Bengal may face a deficit during the peak monsoon months of July and August. The IMD will announce the date for the onset of the monsoon over Kerala in the last week of May.