A disruption in oil and gas shipments from West Asia looks improbable at this point of hostility between Israel and Iran, but it could lead to inflationary pressure as speculators play on risk premia to keep prices on the boil. Benchmark Brent had surged past $90 per barrel in the wake of Iran’s April 13 missile attack on Israel but soon slipped to $87.
On Friday, Brent declined further to $86.4 after Teheran played down reported Israeli attacks on Isfahan, raising hope against escalation of hostilities in the region. Oil minister Hardeep Puri had an extended telecon lasting 30 minutes with Opec secretrary general Hai Tham al-Ghais to discuss the recent oil market volatility and its implications for international energy stability. High oil prices or market volatility impact the government’s math as India meets 83% of its oil requirements through imports. It is particularly vulnerable to conflicts in West Asia, which was the source of 46% of total oil shipments in 2023-24. The country also imports nearly half of its natural gas and LPG, a majority of which comes from Qatar and Saudi Arabia, respectively.
“There are two aspects – physical supply and price. Production oil/refined products and shipping have not been disrupted anywhere. So oil is available. As for pricing, the market works on ‘sentiment’, which is fickle in nature. Speculators exploit any conflict situation to make a quick buck. That is why you see Brent shoot up one day after Iran’s missile attack and down subsequently when Israel did not retaliate on expected lines,” a top executive of a refining company told TOI.
He also played down the impact on refining margins because of higher shipping and insurance costs due to escalation in risk premia. “Like traders, shippers and insurers also play on the sentiment. At most, the impact per barrel could be 2-3 cents for shipments from West Asia and 3-4 cents for longer routes,” he said.
Ratnagiri Refineries and Petrochemicals CEO and former HPCL chairman M K Surana too did not see any supply disruption but saw volatility ahead because the conflict renews the risk premia.
“The market had adjusted to the war in Ukraine and Israel’s Gaza operation. The Iran conflict renews risk premia, which moves with the news,” he said, adding the only scenario in which supplies will get disrupted is if Iran blocks the Hormuz Strait, through which a third of seaborne oil traded globally pass. “I don’t think things will come to that as it could potentially lead to the conflict spreading, which the world doesn’t want.”
