India saved an estimated $7.9 billion in oil import in the 11 months of the 2023-24 financial year, compared to $5.1 billion over the whole of 2022-23, by purchasing higher volumes of Russian crude at deep discounts, according to ICRA Research. This resulted in a compression of 15-22 basis points in India’s current account deficit-to-GDP ratio in 2023-24. However, ICRA Research warned that if the low levels of discounts continue, India’s net oil import bill could widen to $101-104 billion in 2024-25, assuming an average crude price of $85 per barrel. Based on commerce ministry data, the share of Russian crude in India’s oil import basket is projected to rise to about 36% during the April 2023-February 2023 period, which marks a significant increase compared to about 2% in 2021-22.