MNS chief Raj Thackeray’s decision to extend unconditional support to Mahayuti in this LS election is thought to be driven by fears that a defeat would spell doom for the party. However, analyzing the actual impact of MNS’s support is challenging due to the party’s declining vote share and its decision to abstain from parliamentary polls for the second time in a row. When MNS made its maiden entry in the LS and assembly elections in 2009, it put on a remarkable performance. Its candidates in Mumbai secured over 1 lakh votes each, cutting into the votes of the undivided Shiv Sena and BJP and winning 13 seats in the assembly. The party scored approximately 24% of the vote in Mumbai alone, preventing the Shiv Sena-BJP alliance from winning 11 seats. However, in subsequent elections, MNS witnessed a decline in its popularity. In the 2014 LS polls, its vote share dropped to 1.5% and all its 10 candidates faced a massive defeat. In the same year’s assembly polls, it won only one seat out of the 209 it contested and its vote share dwindled to 3.2%. In the recently held LS polls, MNS decided to sit it out and campaigned against the BJP and PM Modi. During the state assembly polls, it fielded 101 candidates but managed to win only one seat, further reducing its vote share to 2.3%. Similarly, MNS experienced a decline in the BMC polls, going from 27 corporators in 2012 to just seven in 2017. Observers believe that had MNS contested on one or two seats in this election, it might have secured more votes with Mahayuti’s support. However, opting not to contest provides Raj Thackeray with the flexibility to explore other options if Mahayuti performs poorly. Remaining neutral could have marginalized MNS even further electorally, especially considering the lead taken by his cousin, Uddhav Thackeray, the Shiv Sena (UBT) chief, in the rival MVA and the rise of the sympathy wave, making him a significant player in the INDIA bloc.
Raj Thackeray’s Support for Mahayuti in LS Election Driven by Fear of Party’s Demise
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