China faces a big soybean problem — a giant pile of leftover beans! For months, China imported record amounts of soybeans, but now these huge stocks at ports and in state reserves are making buyers slow down. This is a big headache for the US, which hoped the recent trade truce would boost soybean sales. Washington said that China promised to buy 12 million tons of US soybeans this year and 25 million tons each year for the next three years. But so far, China has not publicly promised to buy or placed big orders. Johnny Xiang, founder of Beijing’s AgRadar Consulting, said, "State firms may be waiting for margins to recover before making large-scale purchases. Even with tariff waivers, margins remain negative and Brazilian beans are still cheaper." Why? Earlier this year, Chinese buyers bought tons of soybeans from South America, fearing problems if the trade war continued. This led to an oversupply. By November, Chinese ports held a record 10.3 million tons of soybeans, 3.6 million tons more than last year. Crushers, the companies that process soybeans, had 7.5 million tons—the most since 2017. But prices for soymeal—the animal feed made from soybeans—have fallen over 20% since April, making profits very tight or negative. In Rizhao, a key processing hub, crush margins hit a loss of about 190 yuan per ton recently. Traders say these losses might continue until at least March. One trader said, "There is not much room for China to increase soybean imports. Soybean stocks are huge and demand for the feed sector is very slow." Despite hopes that China’s state grain buyers, COFCO and Sinograin, would quickly resume big purchases after trade talks, this hasn’t happened yet. A US official told Reuters, "The administration expects our trading partners to adhere to their deal commitments. The president reserves the right to adjust tariff rates, export controls, and other concessions to hold our trading partners accountable." China’s official grain stock numbers are secret, but traders estimate state companies hold 40 to 45 million tons of soybeans—around twice what China imported from the US last year. This stockpile can cover five months of demand in the early year. Meanwhile, private importers favor cheaper Brazilian soybeans. Brazilian soybeans for January are priced about $480 a ton, while US soybeans cost $540 to $550 a ton, including shipping to China. For December shipments, about 2 million tons of soybeans have been booked, more than 40% of expected demand. But bookings for January are slow. StoneX’s chief commodities economist, Arlan Suderman, wrote, "There's very little indication that state buyers are engaged in a program to purchase 12 million metric tons ahead of the end of this year, let alone 25 million tons more for calendar year 2026."