August 30, 2025

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi is all set to make a grand comeback to China this weekend, marking his first visit there in seven long years! This visit to Tianjin for the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation summit is not just any trip. Modi will find himself alongside heavyweights like Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin. Why now? Because India’s cozy relationship with the US just hit a speed breaker. The US recently doubled tariffs on Indian exports to a hefty 50%, blaming India for refusing to stop buying Russian oil. This tariff shockwave threatens years of close India-US friendship built on tech and a shared goal to keep China in check. Michael Kugelman, a South Asia expert, bluntly says, "Indian trust in the US is shattered." He wonders if the US truly sees how much trust it lost in such a short time. For China, the timing is simply perfect. Kugelman notes, "Modi will be in China at a moment when India-China relations are stabilising and India-US relations have gone south. It is a powerful optic." Manoj Kewalramani from Bengaluru adds, "No doubt there are some in China who are revelling in the trade tensions between India and the US." Even Putin wants to grab the moment to strengthen his Russia-India bond. Kugelman says, "It would be a great moment for everyone to stick out their tongues at Washington." Washington claims India’s purchases of Russian crude and military gear help fund Moscow’s war on Ukraine. Meanwhile, Donald Trump’s trade adviser Peter Navarro lashed out on social media, calling India an "oil money laundromat for the Kremlin." But India defends its stand, saying Russian oil helps keep energy and global prices stable, while following international law. Modi is walking a tightrope, trying not to directly blame Moscow but pushing for peace. The tariff hit is painful. The US is India’s biggest export market worth $86.5 billion a year, and the 50% tariffs cover about $60.2 billion in goods. This hurts many jobs in industries like textiles and jewellery. India’s ties with China suffered after a deadly border clash in 2020 but began warming again when Modi and Xi met at a BRICS summit in Russia last October. Now with India-US tensions rising, Kugelman believes Modi has good reason to accelerate efforts to ease China ties. Modi will meet Xi on the sidelines of the summit with trade and investment on top of their agenda. Kewalramani says, "An effort is under way to see if India and China can reach some sort of new equilibrium." He warns, "Historical mistrust will remain," but a stable and predictable relationship could bring practical benefits. Russia also benefits as India needs it more to balance Western ties, diversify military purchases, and secure energy. A retired Indian diplomat says Modi’s photos with Xi and Putin will "send a pointed message to Washington." Indian officials openly say they still want good ties with the US but must "diversify their partnerships." No way can India appear to bow to US pressure on oil or anything else, especially with public opinion burning hot. To fight back the tariff blow, India launched a big export drive covering 40 countries to boost textiles—from the UK to South Korea. Before heading to China, Modi visited Tokyo for the India-Japan summit with Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba. This deep link with Japan on defence, technology, and investments is India’s way to reduce the shock from lost US markets. Big Japanese companies are pledging huge investments in India, with Suzuki alone promising about $8 billion over the next five to six years. Modi hailed the India-Japan friendship as "made for each other" after seeing a Suzuki plant. Talks will focus on critical minerals and high-value manufacturing. India has big rare earth deposits but lacks the tech to fully use them. This new trip haircut for India signals a bold, colourful dance on the global stage, balancing old friends and new opportunities amid stormy trade skies.

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Tags: Narendra modi, India-china relations, Us tariffs on india, Russia-india ties, Shanghai cooperation organisation, India-japan summit,