August 11, 2025

The Indian stock market ended the week on a gloomy note, with the popular Nifty 50 falling below the important 24,400 mark to close at 24,363.30 — a drop of 232.85 points or 0.95%. The Sensex also stumbled, losing 765.47 points or 0.95% to finish at 79,857.79. Why so grim? A cocktail of global worries like high interest rates, mixed international market cues, and foreign investors pulling out money made things tense. Investors stayed cautious, booking profits in major sectors. But wait! There might be a silver lining. Technical signs say the market is oversold, and since Nifty is near strong support levels, a bounce back could be just around the corner. To decode all this market drama, ET Markets spoke to Rahul Ghose, founder and CEO of Octanom Tech and Hedged.in. Here's what he said: "It’s been another rough week for Indian equities," Rahul explained. On August 8th, Nifty dived nearly 1%, closing below 24,400 for the first time since May, marking six weeks of losses - the longest losing streak in five years. He pointed out, "Volatility is picking up, and the market feels very headline-driven right now." What’s next? Rahul gave a clear roadmap: "If the Nifty can’t reclaim 24,500 soon, the market might drift to 23,900 or below. But if it closes above 24,850, bulls could celebrate with a rally of another 600 points!" So, traders, hold tight and don’t rush in too heavily. Talking about August, "It hasn’t been kind at all," Rahul said. Foreign investors have sold shares every day this month, pushing indexes down. Historically, August is tricky, but this year started on a sour note, hurt by global uncertainty and local pressures. What about those Trump tariffs? "Yes, they’ve already shaken confidence," Rahul revealed. The hikes on Indian exports have hit sectors like textiles, jewellery, and chemicals, sending a chill across investors who dislike trade tensions. The Bank Nifty also looked weak, ending at 55,521 with key support levels at 55,125 and 54,729. If those break, expect more drops. On the upside, banks need to crush 56,011 points to ease pressure. Can we hope for foreign investors to return? Not just yet. Rahul said, "They have pulled out nearly Rs 16,000 crore in August. Domestic investors are stepping in, but FIIs will wait for calmer global waters." The earnings season is a mixed bag. While MapmyIndia and Kalpataru Projects impressed, big names like Biocon and Godrej Consumer slipped. No strong earnings-led rally is visible yet, but good surprises could change things. SBI is a bright spot: it posted a 12% profit rise to Rs 19,160 crore, helped by good loan growth. Still, high costs and provisions are concerns. The stock trades between Rs 785 and Rs 835, showing solid fundamentals. The IT sector faces tough times due to global tech slowdown and foreign selling, while defensive sectors like FMCG and some energy companies stand strong, losing less than the broader market. Rahul advises stock lovers to stick with dependable big names in tough times — "HDFC Life, NTPC, Titan, Hindustan Unilever, and Indian Oil can protect your investments." They might not skyrocket but can soften market blows. In short, the Indian market is wading through stormy seas. Will it bounce back soon? Keep an eye on Nifty’s fight to cross 24,850! (Disclaimer: The views and suggestions are those of the expert Rahul Ghose and do not represent The Economic Times.)

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Tags: Nifty 50, Sensex, Indian equity market, Foreign fund outflows, Rahul ghose, Market outlook,