August 21, 2025

For over 20 years, Washington and New Delhi enjoyed a shining strategic friendship, celebrated as a post-Cold War success. But now, this powerful bond faces its toughest challenge yet — and India seems to have found other dance partners! Evan Feigenbaum, a South Asia expert at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, boldly says, "The trust is gone." This feeling grew after President Trump slapped a hefty 25% tariff on Indian goods earlier this year, targeting India’s continued buys of Russian oil. And guess what? That tariff is set to double to 50% by August 27! The result? India’s national security adviser recently visited Moscow, and the foreign ministers of Russia and China have been chatting in Delhi. Prime Minister Narendra Modi is prepping for his first China trip in over seven years, while Russian President Vladimir Putin plans to host him soon. This is a clear sign India is leaning East amid the tariff storm. Why the pivot? India's public isn’t happy with what they call U.S. interference in their choices. Feigenbaum explains, "They’re signaling very clearly that they view that as interference in India’s foreign policy, and they are not going to put up with it." Despite some hesitations, India's state refineries resumed buying Russian oil, attracted by 6% to 7% discounts. Today, Russian oil makes up 35% of India’s imports—a big jump from almost nothing before the Ukraine conflict. Moscow sees a golden chance here. Russian Deputy Prime Minister Denis Manturov said, "We continue to ship fuel, including crude oil and oil products, thermal and coking coal," and sees more Russian LNG exports ahead. Russia and China are using this moment to promote their idea of a "great Eurasian partnership" linking their countries with India. Michael Kugelman, a South Asia analyst, notes India's efforts to smooth ties with China started before Trump’s tariffs, mostly for economic reasons. But now, these U.S. policies speed up India's pursuit of closer relations with China and Russia. Some actions by India are diplomatic performances showing frustration with the U.S., while others are serious moves. Feigenbaum states, "India is going to double down on some aspects of its economic and defense relationship with Russia," and these aren’t just for show. Interestingly, India previously leaned less on Russian weapons in favor of American, French, and Israeli gear, but after the Ukraine war began, India quickly upped its Russian energy buys. Kugelman explains this as proof India trusts Russia to always be there, unlike the U.S., which seems less reliable lately. At home, Modi uses this stand-off to prove he won’t bow down to foreign pressure. Kugelman adds, "This defiant tone has real political mileage in India’s domestic debate." Meanwhile, the U.S. isn't backing off. Peter Navarro, former White House trade advisor, called India’s oil deals "opportunistic" and warned India to act more like a true strategic partner. This friction is a far cry from the warm 2008 US-India nuclear deal, where both sides risked a lot to deepen their ties. Back then, despite disagreements over countries like Iran and Pakistan, they kept their relationship healthy. Today, the big glue holding them, fighting China together, still exists. But trade troubles may crack that bond. Kugelman warns that without trust, defense talks and intelligence sharing will be tougher. Feigenbaum sums it up: India’s new moves send a loud message—India will chart its own path, even if it means walking closer to America’s rivals. So, is the old India-US friendship breaking apart? The spicy saga continues!

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Tags: India-us relations, Tariffs, Russia oil, China ties, Modi, International diplomacy,