A painful tropical disease called chikungunya can now spread across most of Europe, a new study shows. Warmer temperatures from climate change mean infections can occur more than six months a year in countries like Spain and Greece, and two months yearly in southeast England. Experts warn the disease will move further north soon. The study examined how temperature affects the virus’ incubation in the Asian tiger mosquito, which has spread in Europe recently. It found infections can happen at temperatures 2.5°C lower than earlier thought. This "quite shocking" finding means more areas are at risk. Chikungunya causes severe joint pain and can be fatal for children and the elderly. It originated in Tanzania in 1952 and was once confined to the tropics. Europe saw small cases before, but in 2025, France and Italy experienced outbreaks with hundreds of cases. Sandeep Tegar of the UK Centre for Ecology and Hydrology (UKCEH) said, "The rate of global warming in Europe is approximately double the global rate... our new estimates are quite shocking. The northward expansion of the disease is just a matter of time." Dr Steven White from UKCEH added, "Twenty years ago, if you said we were going to have chikungunya and dengue in Europe, everybody would have said you were mad... now everything’s changed." The Asian tiger mosquito bites during the day and is moving north, with detections in the UK though not yet settled. Vaccines exist, but avoiding mosquito bites is the best protection. Dr Diana Rojas Alvarez of WHO said, "This study is important because transmission might become even more evident over time." She noted up to 40% of people still suffer severe pain years after infection, and urged control efforts and education to stop mosquito breeding. The study showed that the virus can spread at temperatures as low as 13°C-14°C. This allows infections over six months annually in Spain, Portugal, Italy, and Greece, and for several months in countries including Belgium and France. Previously, the limit was thought to be 16-18°C. "Identifying locations and times for transmission will help authorities act efficiently," said Tegar. The virus often arrives from infected travelers bitten by local mosquitoes, which then spread it further. Cold winters once stopped mosquitoes in Europe, but now in southern regions, mosquitoes are active all year. This raises chances of bigger outbreaks. UKCEH is studying this trend. Dr White warned, "We’re going to get much bigger outbreaks because you don’t have this natural firebreak." While no local chikungunya cases are reported yet in the UK, cases imported from abroad tripled to 73 in early 2025 compared to 2024. White stressed the need to stop the mosquito from establishing, as it can carry chikungunya, dengue, and Zika viruses.