October 30, 2025

Hold your hats, folks! Australia's inflation showing its fiery side again. The Reserve Bank of Australia’s closely watched trimmed mean inflation—which cuts out the wild price swings—jumped to 3% yearly in the September 2025 quarter. That’s a jump from 2.7% in June and the first rise since December 2022. Why does this matter? Because it throws a serious curveball at the hopes of an interest rate cut anytime soon. What’s this trimmed mean inflation all about? Think of it as the RBA’s way to see through the price chaos. It ignores the big movers and shakers in the price basket to spot real, steady inflation trends. As the RBA puts it, it shows “sustained price pressures,” cutting through the noise of short-term price spikes or dips. What’s the big impact? This inflation jump dampens hopes for the Reserve Bank to lower interest rates in November. After hiking rates since 2022 to tame inflation, the RBA had been toying with the idea of easing rates as inflation seemed to cool. But this stronger-than-expected data tells a different story. The RBA remains cautious, stressing that future decisions will depend on full quarterly data and overall economic signals. The spicy inflation surge is driven by rising costs all over — especially energy. Electricity prices soared 9%, thanks to annual price reviews and state rebates ending, while housing costs climbed 2.5%. Add in 1.9% upsurge in recreation and culture and 1.2% rise in transport, and you've got a recipe for mid-year inflation heat. The official Consumer Price Index (CPI) came in hot too, rising 1.3% for the September quarter – the fastest climb since March 2023. Annual CPI inflation jumped to 3.2%, up from 2.1% a year ago. What’s the takeaway for everyday Aussies? Brace yourselves! Higher bills for essentials like electricity and housing are likely. Homeowners and folks with mortgages could soon feel the pinch with higher borrowing costs if interest rates stay elevated. The idea of a quick rate cut is now on shaky ground, meaning these financial pressures might stick around well into 2026. In short, Australia's inflation story for late 2025 is heating up, keeping everyone—from the RBA to consumers—on their toes!

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Tags: Australia inflation, Trimmed mean inflation, Reserve bank of australia, Interest rates, Cpi september 2025,