November 1, 2025

India’s food delivery market is bubbling with excitement but hitting a stable phase. Growth has slowed to about 17–18% in Gross Merchandise Value (GMV), down from a sizzling 25% earlier. Karan Taurani, Senior Vice President at Elara Capital, shared these hot updates with ET Now. He said, "Revenue and EBITDA growth are converging — margins are stabilizing around the 25–28% mark from earlier 40%+ CAGR levels." Swiggy and Zomato still run the show with their strong hold. Taurani added, "Despite slower growth, valuations won’t see major derating because competition hasn’t scaled up. Rapido hasn’t been able to disrupt the market meaningfully." The real action is now shifting to quick commerce — the rapid delivery race! But it’s a tricky balancing act for companies. Taurani explained, "Players like Zepto and Instamart are in a dilemma — chasing growth increases losses, while prioritizing profitability slows valuation momentum." The quick movers Blinkit and Eternal seem to have found a smarter, balanced approach. "Companies that can grow while reducing losses will emerge as winners," he said. Swiggy aims to break even by Q1 FY27 based on contribution margin, but Taurani warns, "It’s already priced in. Expect the stock to stay range-bound between ₹400 and ₹470." What about Reliance’s quick commerce splash with JioMart and dark stores? Taurani says, "Reliance has tried multiple verticals — Tira in beauty, Shein in fashion — but scale and consumer experience remain challenges. Blinkit and Instamart have first-mover advantages and deep consumer data insights. Reliance may emerge as a player, but not a disruptor." Turning to the sparkling alcobev sector, Taurani is outright bullish on Radico Khaitan. Why? Because of its strong innovation and premium brands making up over 80% of revenue and growing at 20% plus. Margins are shining bright, forecasting a juicy 30% earnings CAGR in the next few years. "Radico’s P&A segment contributes over 80% of revenue and is growing at 20%+. Margins are expanding, giving it a 30% earnings CAGR over the next few years," he emphasized. Meanwhile, United Spirits is dragging with only 12% growth, and United Breweries feels the pressure in regular beer sales. "Volume growth in regular beer is weak, and while premium beer is growing, it’s not enough to offset margin stress. UBL earnings were cut by 15–18% this quarter," Taurani said. His pick? "I’d buy Radico below ₹3,000 for long-term gains," he recommends, rating it “Accumulate.” In the wider discretionary sector, Taurani’s fingers hover over Jubilant FoodWorks, Eternal, Swiggy, and DMart. Jubilant benefits from GST-led consumption and easing raw material costs. Eternal and Swiggy shine as long-term bets in quick commerce and delivery. He also notes, "DMart could become attractive below 60x PE, offering a tactical opportunity for investors." The message is clear — while food delivery giants might take longer to turn cozy profits, the quick commerce race and alcobev sparkling stars are ready to dazzle the market!

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Tags: Swiggy, Zomato, Quick commerce, Radico khaitan, Alcobev, Market Growth,