How do authoritarian regimes fall? Ernest Hemingway said it happens "gradually then suddenly." Iran’s current crisis is serious but still in the gradual stage. Recent protests came amid heavy economic trouble. Sanctions were reimposed by the UK, Germany, and France in September, pushing food price inflation above 70% in 2025 and the rial currency to record lows in December. Despite the pressure, Iran’s regime holds firm because its powerful security forces remain loyal. Since 1979, Iran built a strict network of control. Over the last two weeks, forces shot protesters and crushed demonstrations. The Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC), with around 150,000 armed men, defends the government and answers directly to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. The IRGC’s Basij militia has hundreds of thousands of volunteers who help suppress protests sharply on the streets. In 2009, similar harsh crackdowns ended large protests within weeks. The regime keeps a tight grip with communication blackouts. Iranian leader Khamenei’s key goal is keeping the Islamic Republic’s system alive. Though President Donald Trump threatens more action and tariffs on countries trading with Iran, a US-China trade truce might limit effects. Iran’s hoped-for sudden regime collapse is not here yet. Protesters lack clear leadership, with the Shah’s eldest son trying unsuccessfully to unite them. Tehran fears uprisings like Syria’s recent quick downfall or Tunisia’s 2011 collapse, but so far Iran’s security forces stay strong. For now, Iran’s regime faces a big challenge but remains standing.