August 9, 2025

Hold tight! President Donald Trump is mixing the spicy masala of tariffs with a big dollop of foreign policy drama. His newest move? Targeting India's imports of Russian oil with a sharp 25% tariff. This bold step is a warning shot fired at Moscow’s customers, part of Trump's second term battle plan to make Russia stop the war in Ukraine — or face the music by Friday. India got the first taste, with a tariff slapped on Wednesday, marking the first financial punishment on Russia by Trump’s team this term. But China's still waiting in the wings. As the top buyer of Russian oil, no tariff order has been signed for them yet, but White House insiders hint that another round of tariff showdowns might land by Friday. Trump’s trade toolbox has been swinging wildly lately — from pushing Denmark for Greenland to blocking fentanyl imports from Mexico and Canada, to penalizing Brazil over a "witch hunt" against former President Jair Bolsonaro. Now, he’s using tariffs as a weapon against Russia’s oil sales. The goal? Cut off the cash stream that fuels Vladimir Putin’s war machine. Sounds clever? But there’s a twist! Higher tariffs might push oil prices sky-high, stirring political trouble for Trump just before the 2024 midterm elections. Plus, these tariffs could ruffle feathers and make trade deals with heavyweights China and India tougher to crack. Putin? He’s already showing he’s ready to bear the pain. Eugene Rumer, a top former U.S. Russia analyst, warned, “There is 'close to zero chance' Putin will agree to a ceasefire due to Trump's threats of tariffs and sanctions on Russia.” India and China seem ready to ignore the tariff threat and keep buying Russian oil at cheaper prices—defying U.S. pressure. Here’s the big picture: Russia is the world’s second-largest oil exporter, and the West has tried to squeeze it using a price cap on Russian oil since late 2022. But that cap pushed Russia to sell heavily to India and China at discounts, keeping oil flowing around the world. Could Putin and Trump meet soon to cut a deal? The White House says it’s possible, after talks between a U.S. envoy and Putin last week. But experts like Brett Bruen say Putin has dodged sanctions before and won’t give up easily. Tariffs might sting Russia’s wallet a little, but will they really stop the war? Now, let’s zoom out. The tariffs could upset U.S. relations with India and China. Kimberly Donovan, a former U.S. Treasury official, says these countries hold cards too — India controls generic medicines and chemical exports, China controls important minerals. Both say buying Russian oil is their right within the existing price cap rules. Here’s the big danger: If oil imports from Russia suddenly dry up, world oil prices could shoot up, hitting everyone's pockets hard and stirring inflation — just when the political heat on Trump is already high. For example, if India stops buying 1.7 million barrels a day of Russian crude (about 2% of global supply), prices could jump from $66 per barrel to much higher. JP Morgan analysts even think it’s “impossible” to sanction Russian oil without prices soaring. Higher oil prices will pinch U.S. consumers and business alike, and disrupting Russian oil flows might trigger retaliations like shutting pipelines from Kazakhstan — a true global supply headache. Despite Trump’s promise that U.S. producers will fill the gap, experts doubt that can happen overnight. Energy shocks are always nasty news — especially now, with a soft housing market and shaky job growth. The million-dollar question: Can Trump sell the pain as worth it to voters? Cullen Hendrix from the Peterson Institute says, “Of all his tariff gambits, this is the one that could resonate best with voters, at least in principle.” But beware: the risk is huge! It’s a daring gamble where the stakes are sky-high — in money, politics, and peace windows.

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Tags: Trump tariffs, Russia oil, India imports, China oil, Secondary tariffs, Putin war funding,