A recent study by the University of East Anglia reveals that India’s non-metro cities could become much hotter compared to surrounding rural areas because of urban heat island effects. The research analyzed 104 medium-sized tropical and subtropical cities under a 2°C global warming scenario, the current path for emissions. It found cities warm faster than their rural neighbors, with some cities experiencing up to double the temperature increase predicted by global climate models. In Patiala, Punjab, land surface temperatures could rise twice as fast as in rural areas nearby, making it an extreme case. Karur in Pakistan showed a similar pattern. This means if the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change expects a 2°C rise in Patiala, the actual temperature could reach 4°C once urban heat is factored in. Such rises could worsen heatstroke risks, reduce water availability, and increase cooling costs. The study covered 18 Indian cities, all warming about 45% faster than surrounding rural land. Average city temperature rise estimates went from 2.2°C to about 2.6–2.7°C after considering urban effects. Larger cities like Jalandhar saw 0.7–0.8°C more warming than nearby countryside. Some cities globally showed even higher differences — for example, Asyut in Egypt warmed 1.5–2°C more. The research explains that climate models often blend cities and rural areas due to their coarse resolution, missing these urban-rural temperature differences. Using satellite data from 2002 to 2020 and machine learning, researchers examined how features like vegetation and surface reflectivity affect urban heat today and projected their impact under warming. They concluded that rural areas cool more thanks to vegetation, while cities with concrete and less greenery get hotter faster. Manoj Joshi of the Climatic Research Unit at UEA said, "Urban heat stress under climate change is an increasing concern, as many cities in the tropics and subtropics can be warmer than their rural surroundings, heightening their vulnerability to rising temperatures." He added that cities in North-East China and northern India could warm about 3°C, despite models showing 1.5–2°C warming in rural zones. The study published on February 4, 2026, in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, urges better climate modeling that accounts for urban heat islands to protect city populations from rising heat risks.