Weather and climate experts from NOAA and Australia's Bureau of Meteorology say there is a chance of an El Niño forming in the Pacific Ocean later this year. This event warms ocean waters near South America, which can raise global temperatures. Both agencies caution that predictions carry uncertainty since it is still early to be sure. Climate scientist Dr Andrew Watkins of Monash University said, "We have a lot of warm water stored up in the western tropical Pacific. Typically when the trade winds ease that will slosh back to the east and warm up the areas off South America." He added that models show this could happen during the Australian autumn. Associate Professor Andrea Taschetto from the University of New South Wales explained the current La Niña is ending, and the chance of El Niño or neutral conditions by June to August is about 50/50, "like tossing a coin." The past three years rank among the hottest ever recorded worldwide. Dr Zeke Hausfather of Berkeley Earth said a recent El Niño added roughly 0.12°C to global temperatures in 2024, and a new El Niño could peak in late 2026 or early 2027. He predicts 2027 may set a new heat record if a moderate to strong El Niño occurs. Watkins also expects a record hot year in 2027 due to El Niño and long-term climate change caused by fossil fuels. "You might not need a strong El Niño to get these warmer temperatures," he remarked, highlighting that global warming now drives higher temperatures beyond natural year-to-year shifts.