Bond Yields Rise as RBI Holds Rates; Rupee Gains on US-India Trade Deal
February 9, 2026
India's bond yields rose for the second straight week after the Reserve Bank of India kept interest rates at 5.25% on Friday. The RBI decided not to offer new liquidity support, surprising traders who expected some easing to help with credit growth. The 10-year government bond yield settled at 6.7363%, reflecting selling pressure and expectations it will trade between 6.71% and 6.80% this week.
The Indian rupee closed at 90.6550, up over 1% for the week. This came after India and the US announced an interim trade framework, building on talks from last week. While this trade deal boosted sentiment around Indian assets, analysts like Goldman Sachs said, "spot upside is likely to prove limited."
Foreign investors bought nearly $900 million of Indian stocks in February so far, after selling $4 billion last month. However, they have sold $19 billion since the start of 2025.
Market focus now shifts to the debt supply ahead, with India planning to borrow a record 17.20 trillion rupees ($189.7 billion) in the next financial year, starting April. Net borrowing is expected to be 11.73 trillion rupees. RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra warned that focusing only on gross borrowing can mislead, explaining, "there are many more redemptions next year than in the current year."
Key upcoming economic events include India's January retail inflation report on February 12, and US import prices, retail sales, and unemployment data throughout this week.
Investors will closely watch these data points alongside RBI's liquidity management and government borrowing plans, which could drive bond yields and currency moves in the near term.
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Tags:
Bond Market
Rupee
Rbi policy
Foreign investment
India-us trade
Government Borrowing
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