China leads the world in rare earths by handling the dirty, risky processes Western countries avoid. It has used export bans on rare earth elements amid rising global tensions. New technologies like AI and quantum computing now let scientists design alloys from common materials. This could cut years off the time to find substitutes, reducing mining dependence. However, Wei Shen of the Institute of Development Studies warns that issues of stability, scale, and cost mean commercial use will take time. "A complete industrial ecosystem cannot be 'built overnight',” he said. China’s dominance grew from decades of investment and cost control. Chris Berry from House Mountain Partners praises China’s fast innovation, especially using AI to create new materials. Yet, he adds that controlling intellectual property remains key to supply chains, with big geopolitical stakes. But Berry also cautions much of the hype is early-stage, and moving from lab results to commercial scale takes time. Jack Lifton of the Critical Minerals Institute dismisses AI as just fast computing, stressing that human experience and trial and error built China’s rare earth success. He says non-Chinese firms lack the depth of expertise to quickly rebuild these industries. Moreover, even if new substitutes reduce China’s rare earth grip, Beijing’s push for self-sufficiency in technology by 2040 may lessen rare earth supply’s geopolitical weight. Xue notes, "Even in a world where AI-driven substitution succeeds, its ultimate impact on China’s strategic position may end up being limited."