Food prices in Russia have surged sharply as the war in Ukraine nears its fourth year. Alexander, a Moscow advertising specialist, saw his monthly food budget rise by over 22%, from 35,000 to 43,000 roubles. Prices of everyday items like eggs, chicken, seasonal vegetables, and even an Americano coffee have steadily climbed. Since the war began, inflation was masked by initial growth but became clear in early 2026 when supermarket prices rose 2.3% in less than a month. The BBC has tracked a basket of 59 goods at Moscow's Pyaterochka supermarket. It cost 7,358 roubles in 2024 and jumped 18.6% to 8,724 roubles by early 2026. Fruits and vegetables, mostly imported, rose around 15%, while dairy prices soared 41% due to farm cost increases and labor shortages. A recent VAT hike from 20% to 22% adds more pressure on consumers, with the government citing defense spending as the cause. Many Russians are adjusting their budgets. Nadezhda, a retiree, spends her entire pension on food, cutting back on other essentials. Kristina, a marketing professional, now hunts discounts and scrimps on dining out, noting that home-cooked meals have doubled in cost. Experts warn Russia's economy may enter recession as oil prices fall and U.S. sanctions hit sales to key partners like India. This could cause bigger budget deficits and force the government to raise taxes or cut public spending, further hurting household incomes. Economist Tatiana Mikhailova said, "Overall, there is a trend towards stagnation and a possible decline in GDP." The economic slowdown and rising prices mean ordinary Russians will keep feeling the pinch in their wallets.