September 5, 2025

India’s population story is changing fast! The newest Sample Registration System report of 2023 reveals a fascinating shift in fertility and infant deaths across the country. For the first time ever, rural India’s Total Fertility Rate (TFR) has reached the replacement level of 2.1 — the magic number that keeps population stable by replacing one generation with the next. Nationwide, the TFR has dropped from 2.0 in 2022 to 1.9 in 2023, showing India’s population growth is slowing down. What does this mean? Simply put, each woman has fewer children on average than before. The TFR measures how many babies a woman is likely to have during her reproductive years. Compared to 2022, rural TFR shrank from 2.2 to 2.1, and urban TFR declined from 1.6 to 1.5. This means rural women still have about one child more than urban women, but the gap is narrowing. The Gross Reproduction Rate (GRR), which looks specifically at daughters who will grow up to have children, is 0.9 on average in India. Rural GRR is 1.0, while urban GRR is lower at 0.7, showing rural women are having more daughters who survive to adulthood. State-wise, Bihar leads by far with the highest TFR at 2.8, followed by Uttar Pradesh at 2.6, Madhya Pradesh at 2.4, and Rajasthan at 2.3. On the flip side, Delhi has the lowest at a mere 1.2 children per woman, with Tamil Nadu and West Bengal close behind at 1.3 each. Maharashtra stands at 1.4, while Andhra Pradesh, Jammu & Kashmir, Karnataka, Kerala, Punjab, and Telangana all hover at 1.5. Turning to infant health, the Infant Mortality Rate (IMR) — the number of babies dying before their first birthday per 1,000 live births — also brings good news. It has dropped to 25 nationally from 26 last year. However, some states still struggle. Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh, and Uttar Pradesh have the highest IMRs at 37, while Kerala and Manipur boast the safest start to life with 5 and 3 respectively. But here’s a sobering fact: despite improvements, 1 in every 40 babies in India still dies before turning one. The report praises the steady fall in infant deaths from 32 per 1,000 in 2018 to the current 25 in 2023, marking a healthy five-year drop. The decline is stronger in rural areas (from 36 to 28) compared to urban (from 23 to 18). Both boys and girls show progress in survival rates, which is a hopeful sign for India’s future. In short, India is edging towards population stability in rural regions and shows signs of better baby care, but big population differences remain across states. As the country balances its demographic scales, these numbers tell a vivid story of change and challenge.

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Tags: India population, Total fertility rate, Infant mortality rate, Sample registration system, Rural fertility, Population decline,