September 22, 2025

In late August, Pentagon officials shocked European diplomats with a serious warning: the US plans to cut back on some security help to Latvia, Lithuania, and Estonia—all NATO neighbors to Russia. David Baker, a Pentagon official, told the group Europe must rely less on the U.S. military, as Washington shifts its focus to defending its own soil under President Donald Trump. Some European diplomats worried this move might encourage Russian President Vladimir Putin to become more aggressive. Their fears seemed confirmed on a tense Friday. Russian MiG-31 jets reportedly entered Estonian airspace for about 10 minutes before being chased away by Italian F-35 fighters, according to Estonia. Russia denied entering Estonian airspace, claiming the jets flew over neutral waters. Not long after, Russian jets buzzed a Polish oil platform, raising more alarms from Warsaw. Last week, Poland also shot down Russian drones. The U.S. response to these provocations has been quiet. President Trump himself waited hours before commenting on the latest airspace incident, finally calling it "big trouble." His cryptic social media post after last week's drone incident read: "Here we go!" Trump seems to be pulling back from global diplomacy lately, leaving allies to take the lead with only vague promises of U.S. help. Instead, he’s focusing more on internal issues like fighting crime and reforming visa programs. After hosting Putin in Alaska earlier this year and demanding Europe punish buyers of Russian oil, Trump has backed away from some diplomatic efforts, especially regarding the Israel-Hamas conflict. When Israel bombed a Hamas office in Qatar—an ally of the U.S.—the White House protested silently but took no action. Even as Israel launched a controversial military attack on Gaza City, Trump remained quiet, despite condemnation from Europe and Arab countries that feared peace chances were fading. Trump's cautious moves are partly because he believes the U.S. military is stretched too thin. However, a different Trump showed up this summer when he supported Israel’s air strikes by bombing Iranian nuclear sites and promised new Patriot missile systems to Ukraine. Analysts now say he’s back to his usual stance of wanting less foreign conflict involvement. Aaron David Miller, a seasoned former diplomat, noted, "He's not interested in doing anything unless he sees that the expenditure of effort and political capital will be worth the return." Meanwhile, some European diplomats are tired of Trump's flip-flopping on Russia. In June and July, Trump praised Europeans and threatened Russia with sanctions, but after his Alaska summit with Putin resulted in no peace deal, he made statements more friendly to Russian views. Recently, Trump criticized European nations for still buying Russian oil while expecting U.S. help. He also urged EU officials to slap 100% tariffs on China and India for the same reason, though this move clashes with the EU's preference for sanctions and could be tough to implement quickly. Trump’s supporters say he simply wants Europe to take charge of its own defense. Yet some diplomats see a trap, worried Europe might struggle economically if forced to impose harsh trade barriers. Despite a letter from Baltic lawmakers asking the U.S. to reconsider the security aid cuts, the White House stayed firm. A U.S. official said, "Many of our European allies are among the world's wealthiest countries. They are fully capable of funding these programs if they choose." As tensions rise with Russia's bold airspace moves, it’s unclear whether Trump will change his stance. For now, Europe faces a more independent — and possibly riskier — security future.

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Tags: Us security aid, Nato, Russia airspace violation, Trump administration, European diplomats, Baltic states,