Gold Shines Steady Near $4,015 Amid Fed Caution, Trade Truce & Central Bank Buying

November 3, 2025

Gold price is keeping a cool and steady pace near $4,015 per ounce, pausing after an incredible climb earlier this year. As of 2:20 PM ET on Saturday, November 1, 2025, spot gold traded at $4,015.88, showing little change from recent days. Futures closed slightly lower at $4,013.30, just a tiny slip from $4,015.90. This price range marks a pause after gold soared almost 60% since the start of the year, peaking at a record high of $4,378 per ounce in mid-October. Now, gold has pulled back about 8% from its peak, staying in a $4,013 to $4,080 trading band.

On October 30, gold dipped slightly to $4,004.43, a small 0.5% drop, but it still gained 3.61% over the last month and a whopping 46.35% compared to last year.

Federal Reserve’s Hawkish Tune Creates Headwinds

The US central bank’s cautious mood is putting a bit of pressure on gold. Fed Chair Jerome Powell said the Fed would move with “data-driven caution” after a 25-basis-point rate cut earlier in the week. He made it clear there might not be a rate cut in December, sparking worries about stubborn inflation. This hawkish talk boosted the US dollar, which climbed to a three-month high, making gold costlier for buyers abroad. When the dollar shines, gold usually takes a step back! Officials from Kansas City and Dallas also echoed this tough stance, pushing down the chances of December rate cuts from over 90% a week ago to just 65% now.

US-China Trade Deal: A Temporary Truce

The recent one-year trade deal between the US and China brought some calm but also fresh uncertainty to gold’s sparkle. Presidents Donald Trump and Xi Jinping agreed on easing tariffs related to critical minerals and rare earths, and some trade moves like reduced fentanyl tariffs and resumed soybean imports. This deal removed some trade tension, which had made gold attractive as a safe-haven. Yet market experts like Nick Twidale of AT Global Markets warn: "Uncertainty is creeping back into markets," meaning gold dip buyers might jump back before the year ends.

Central Banks Go Gold Crazy

One powerful boost for gold comes from central banks. The World Gold Council revealed that in Q3 of 2025, central banks bought a huge 220 tons of gold—a 28% jump from the previous quarter! Kazakhstan led the race, with Brazil joining after four years. These banks are eager to diversify their reserves against currency risks and economic worries. Experts expect total central bank gold purchases in 2025 to reach a stunning 900 tons.

This massive buying helped keep gold prices high, even as some investors sold gold ETFs to book profits.

ETF Outflows and Corrective Mood

Speaking of ETFs, gold-backed exchange-traded funds saw their longest outflow since April, with seven days of selling. This shows traders are cashing out after big gains. According to Robert Rennie from Westpac Bank, this mix of Fed caution, trade deal calm, and ETF selling created a "corrective mood" pushing gold lower. He estimates gold may dip to around $3,750 before finding strong support.

But many analysts still see $4,000 as a golden buying zone, thanks to ongoing geopolitical risks and market jitters.

Other Precious Metals Show Mixed Moves

Silver modestly gained to $48.60 per ounce, while platinum dropped to $1,569 and palladium slipped to $1,417. Industrial metals like copper fell due to manufacturing worries, but lithium, vital for electric vehicles, rose to $80,550 per ton.

Bright Gold Forecasts for 2026

Wall Street banks are mostly bullish for gold next year. Morgan Stanley predicts $4,500 per ounce by mid-2026, HSBC looks for an average $4,600, and Goldman Sachs raised its target to $4,900. Bank of America and Société Générale expect gold might even touch $5,000, fueled by Fed rate cuts and ongoing central bank buying. J.P. Morgan is a bit more cautious, forecasting $3,675 by end of 2025 before climbing to $4,000 in mid-2026.

Looking Beyond 2026

Future gold prices spark big debates. Some like LongForecast imagine gold hitting $7,000-$7,400 by 2027-28 amid inflation and geopolitical trouble. More moderate experts like Citi predict a $3,500-$4,500 range if the economy steadies and inflation eases.

Market Outlook: Ready for More Thrills?

As 2025 winds down, gold faces a rollercoaster ride. Fed signals and dollar strength will steer its path. Key supports at $3,970 and $3,900 could attract buyers, with resistance near $4,080 and $4,100. Will gold break out to new highs or cool down? One thing is sure: gold still shines as a safe bet in uncertain times and remains a favorite for long-term investors betting on inflation and global risks.