The turkey drama this Thanksgiving is sizzling hot! Thanks to a nasty bird flu wave sweeping through poultry farms, wholesale turkey prices in the US have shot up by about 80%. But don't panic just yet—your local supermarket shelves are still showing turkey prices just like last year! How is that possible? Let's dig in. According to fresh numbers from the US Department of Agriculture (USDA), bird flu has forced farmers to cull over 2 million turkeys just by October, including six outbreaks in Minnesota, the biggest turkey state. On top of that, another pesky virus called avian metapneumovirus is making things worse by cutting down fertile eggs. David Ortega, a food economist at Michigan State University, explains that this slows farmers from rebuilding turkey flocks quickly. Less turkeys on farms mean less supply overall. The USDA expects turkey production this year to dip from 5.1 million pounds in 2024 to 4.8 million pounds. So wholesale frozen turkeys, the usual star of Thanksgiving dinners, have climbed in price from under $1 per pound to over $1.70. That's a hefty hike! But here's the twist—retail turkey prices for shoppers are staying almost the same. Experts say stores are cleverly choosing to bite the bullet on these extra costs. They want to keep you coming back. Retailers often sell turkeys as “loss leaders,” meaning they might sell at a loss just to lure customers in, hoping you'll buy other goodies to fill your basket. When it comes to the total cost of a Thanksgiving meal, things are a bit mixed. Some reports say prices might rise by nearly 10%, while others even suggest a drop of around 5%. Either way, thanks to smart grocery strategies, you can enjoy your turkey dinner without emptying your wallet. So get ready to carve and celebrate—turkey time is on!