Venezuela’s leader Nicolás Maduro says the big US military buildup in the Caribbean is about oil. His country has the world’s largest proven oil reserves. The US State Department disagrees and says its airstrikes on boats killing over 80 people and the military presence near South America fight drug trafficking. President Donald Trump looks set on regime change in Venezuela. The country’s top allies include China, Russia, and Iran. Venezuela has faced a deep economic crisis causing the biggest migration in the region. Trump has made deals with other authoritarian leaders despite this. Critics say the airstrikes on small boats won’t stop most drugs, which mostly come through Mexico. Colombia’s President Gustavo Petro called the US campaign “a negotiation about oil.” He said Trump “is not thinking about democratising Venezuela, much less about drug trafficking.” Experts say it is not so simple. Francisco J Monaldi from Rice University says oil might be a reason but not the main one. Venezuela produces less than 1% of the world’s oil, despite having one-fifth of reserves. Its oil is mostly “heavy sour” crude, hard and costly to extract. Decades of corruption and mismanagement have hurt Venezuela’s oil industry. Production is under 1 million barrels per day but could rise to 4 or 5 million with $100 billion investment and 10 years of work. After worker strikes in the 2000s, Hugo Chávez fired many from state oil company PDVSA and took strict government control. PDVSA kept at least 51% ownership in all oil fields, pushing foreign firms like ConocoPhillips and ExxonMobil out. Oil production fell sharply, worsened by US sanctions banning Venezuelan oil imports during Trump’s first term. Biden later eased sanctions hoping for democracy, but after Maduro’s disputed 2023 election, Trump reimposed them. Chevron never fully stopped operations but ran at low levels. Trump briefly took away its licence but then allowed Chevron to run on a deal that covered costs and repaid debts. Today, PDVSA runs 50% of operations; Chevron 25%; China and Russia each have 10%; Europe 5%. Chevron now ships about 150,000-160,000 barrels daily to the US. José Ignacio Hernández, oil expert and former member of Venezuelan opposition, says the winners of any political change would be companies like Chevron. But he adds, "The oil sector in Venezuela is destroyed... It’s not an attractive market in the short term." Hernández noted Maduro's recent offers to allow US firms into oil and gold projects. “If Trump wanted a monopoly on Venezuela’s oil, he would have accepted Maduro’s offer,” he said. Monaldi adds that even if a US-backed government came to power, companies would decide on investing based on stability and risks. Venezuela has big resources and infrastructure, but political problems and less valuable crude make it tough. “So the obstacles are mostly above ground,” Monaldi summed up.