Myanmar's military has regained momentum in its fight against opposition groups. It has retaken some land and is moving forward with a widely criticised election starting Sunday. Experts say China's changing support is key in this five-year conflict that started after the 2021 coup. Jason Tower from the Global Initiative against Transnational Organized Crime said, “This is really all China playing a role in tilting things in favour of the military regime.” China has closed borders to pressure ethnic armed groups in northern Myanmar to agree to ceasefires and return territory. It has also increased diplomatic support and supplied smart weapons, including drones. Tower added that China’s moves reduced resistance against the Myanmar military in the north. China has also brought the military into international platforms like the Shanghai Cooperation Organization Summit, boosting its global profile. Civil war still rages in much of Myanmar. The military cannot fully control all regions but has gained some ground thanks to China’s help. However, China’s position is complex. It sells weapons to the military yet has ties with armed groups fighting the junta. After the coup, China initially stayed quiet but grew concerned as conflict and economic chaos worsened. It even allowed some ethnic groups to attack the military in late 2023 due to rising crime and scams near the border. China shares a long border with Myanmar and invests heavily in infrastructure projects linking southwestern China to the Indian Ocean. These projects suffered delays amid fighting. When military losses grew in late 2023, China reversed course and pressured ethnic groups to back down through border closures. Security expert Morgan Michaels said, “Did China really ever intend to make those groups so strong that they were going to topple the Myanmar state apparatus? I don’t think so – because as soon as that became a possibility, China stepped in.” China disapproved of the coup’s instability but feared even worse chaos if the military fell. It now supports the military’s election plans, which many see as a sham. Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi hopes the vote brings “domestic peace with a cessation of hostilities” and sends observers along with Russia and Vietnam. The military’s proxy party dominates the election. Junta chief Min Aung Hlaing is expected to keep power under the constitution. The military promises China it will continue economic projects and crack down on scam compounds. Yet, experts warn if progress stalls, China may shift its support once again. Anti-China sentiment grows in Myanmar, with some accusing Beijing of stoking conflict for influence. Yun Sun from the Stimson Center said, “China doesn’t need a war to exert influence” and sees the situation as a balance of power leading to stability. Neither side is China’s clear favourite.