Donald Trump claimed over the weekend that a peace deal to end the war between Russia and Ukraine is “95% done” after his meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy at Mar-a-Lago. However, the remaining 5% includes getting Russian President Vladimir Putin’s agreement, which looks unlikely. Trump’s claim adds to many overly hopeful statements about a quick end to the war. His campaign even promised to end it within 24 hours. Zelenskyy reacted to Trump’s insistence that “Russia wants to see Ukraine succeed” with disbelief and shocked amusement. Several peace deadlines, like a deal by Thanksgiving and peace by Christmas, have passed without success. Russia demands that its “root causes” be addressed, implying control over Ukraine, which Ukraine refuses. Ukraine faces a tough winter, and many expect hard compromises, but surrender is not an option. Putin has not softened his strong demands, and Trump shows no sign of pressuring him. Ukraine’s European allies work to keep the US supporting Kyiv with important help, like intelligence sharing. They also push for US-backed security guarantees to strengthen Ukraine after peace. Trump mentioned progress on these guarantees, but details are unclear. Russia would likely reject any strong Western guarantees like NATO-style security or troops in Ukraine. Neither the US nor Europe is ready to fight Russia over Ukraine now or commit to future wars. Trump appears to tolerate Zelenskyy but admires Putin. During the weekend meeting, no US officials welcomed Zelenskyy at the Miami airport, unlike the warm reception Putin got earlier in Alaska. Trump also called Putin before meeting Zelenskyy, a Kremlin-claimed initiative. If Russia agrees to a ceasefire, it is unclear how the West could enforce it. Without a ceasefire or deal, Ukraine faces two grim choices: keep fighting and hope for change in Russia or accept harsh terms from Moscow. The peace path remains rocky with no clear end in sight.