The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has indicated a chance that El Nino, a warming of the Central Pacific Ocean linked to weak monsoon rains in India, might develop after July this year. IMD Director-General M. Mohapatra said on January 31, 2026, “ENSO-neutral conditions are likely to persist until July and there’s a probability it might move towards El Nino conditions.” El Nino happens when Central Equatorial Pacific waters heat at least half a degree warmer than usual over five overlapping three-month periods. Six out of 10 past El Nino years have seen lower rains in India. Latest models show over a 50% chance of El Nino starting after June, rising near 70% during July to September — the peak monsoon months. Jatin Singh, chairman of Skymet, a private weather forecaster, said early models show a likely El Nino in 2026, boosting the risk of “sub-par monsoon and drought conditions over India.” Mohapatra warned that February and March El Nino forecasts often have errors, and April forecasts are more reliable. Meanwhile, IMD expects below-normal rainfall across most parts of India in February, except some areas in northwest and east-central India. Temperatures will be higher than usual over most regions, except parts of southern India. January rainfall was 31% below normal. Mohapatra added, “It’s been observed that snowfall during the winter months has been reducing… probably due to the impact of climate change.”