China faces a possible drop in its growth rate to 2.5% in the next years without important market reforms, says economist Zhou Tianyong. He noted that staying above 4% growth will be hard without a "strong turnaround in total factor productivity and a meaningful expansion in household consumption." Zhou is the head of the National Economic Engineering Laboratory at Dongbei University of Finance and Economics and former deputy head at the Central Party School’s Institute of International Strategic Studies. He shared this warning in an article on WeChat on February 1. Zhou explained that “potential growth” means the country’s lasting productivity based on work, capital, innovation, and entrepreneurship. For the 15th five-year plan from 2026 to 2030 and beyond, the expected growth rate is about 2.5% if no major reforms happen.