Climate Change and Forest Loss Drive Cocoa Price Volatility; Agroforestry Could Be The Solution
February 14, 2026
Cocoa prices have dropped since their 2023 high but cheap chocolate is unlikely to return soon. Last year's severe heat, drought, and disease in major cocoa-producing regions caused a price surge above 300%. Ivory Coast and Ghana, which produce nearly 60% of the world’s cocoa, faced sharp crop losses. This showed how fragile the global cocoa market is. The problem is more than just climate: expanding cocoa farms have cut down forests that protect the climate and soil. Forests create the special microclimate cocoa needs. Sun-only cocoa farms can give high yields at first but harm soil and increase vulnerability to heat and drought. As yields fall, farms push further into forests, causing more damage. Climate change is also shifting where cocoa can grow, potentially wiping out half of current growing areas in some zones. Without action, future cocoa supply will be unstable, raising prices and reducing availability. A solution lies in agroforestry, where cocoa grows under shade trees. This boosts soil health, protects from heat, and supports biodiversity. Shade-grown cocoa produces higher quality beans that can earn farmers better prices. Projects in Ecuador, Ivory Coast, and Sao Tome show agroforestry can restore forests and help farmers get premiums for sustainable cocoa. For example, Ecuador’s Kichwa communities use the traditional Chakra system, mixing cocoa with diverse trees and plants. This method is globally recognized and linked to fair-trade markets. Scaling such success requires investment from governments, companies, and shoppers. New European rules mandate cocoa entering the EU to be deforestation-free, pushing producers to improve practices. Governments must fund farmer support and reward sustainable farms. Chocolate firms should focus on long-term supply stability over volume. The cheapest cocoa is not always the best if it harms farmers or forests. Paying for sustainably grown cocoa helps keep forests alive and ensures cocoa's future. Cocoa’s fate now depends on protecting forests and biodiversity as vital support systems, not just farming land.
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Tags:
Cocoa Prices
Climate change
Agroforestry
Deforestation
Cocoa Farming
Sustainable Agriculture
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