Brazil is speeding towards its annual beef export limit to China, with experts saying the 1.106 million tonne 2026 quota could be met before the year ends. January alone saw a record 119,630 tonnes shipped, the highest for that month. China has set a high 55% tariff on beef imports exceeding fixed country quotas in 2026, significantly higher than the usual 12%. This tariff rule applies to Brazil, Argentina, Uruguay, and the US. Brazil's limit is about 1.1 million tonnes. Surpassing this could make exports unprofitable. The Brazilian Ministry of Agriculture warned in a leaked letter to Folha de S. Paulo that without a coordinated approach, there could be "strong disorganisation of trade flows" and a risk of "collapse in prices and employment" in the beef sector. The government is considering export controls to avoid a price crash and job losses in cattle farming.