India’s domestic steel prices surged after the government reinstated the safeguard duty for three years from late December. This move reduced steel imports and lifted local prices. Q4 hot-rolled coil prices rose by about ₹5,300 per tonne or 2%, while rebar prices jumped roughly ₹8,200 per tonne or 3%. Steel companies also announced price hikes of ₹1,000-2,000 per tonne in early January. Steel exports strengthened as European Union buyers stocked up ahead of the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), effective January 1, 2026. EU importers must report emissions now and will pay for embedded carbon later, prompting early purchases from India. In non-ferrous metals, supply issues in Chile, Peru, and Indonesia pushed copper and nickel prices higher. Several global aluminium smelters faced outages, tightening supply. China limited aluminium capacity to 45 million tonnes, sustaining demand. Analysts expect steel firms to post better earnings for March quarter, helped by higher prices and volumes, despite rising coking coal costs. Parthiv Jhonsa from Anand Rathi said, "realisations for steel companies are expected to improve by ₹2,500-4,500 per tonne, partially offset by higher coking coal costs." He added that non-ferrous producers will benefit from strong global prices and a weaker rupee. Elara Capital noted, "Aluminium fundamentals remain stronger, supported by limited incremental production in China and firm copper prices." The metal sector looks set for robust performance this quarter with strong demand and operational gains.