Kerala’s Population to Peak by 2041 with Life Expectancy Soaring to 82.9 Years, Says New Report
November 28, 2025
Kerala’s population is set to keep growing till about 2041 and then begin a slow fall. This exciting forecast also shows life expectancy in Kerala rising from 75.1 years in 2026 to a stunning 82.9 years by 2051! According to a new national report by the International Institute of Migration and Development (IIMAD) and Population Foundation of India (PFI), Kerala will continue to be India’s oldest state.
The report, titled ‘Unravelling India’s Demographic Future: Population Projections for States and Union Territories 2021-2051,’ reveals that Kerala’s population, which was 3.34 crore in 2011, is expected to grow to 3.58 crore by 2026, and then reach 3.62 crore by 2041. After that, it may slowly drop to 3.55 crore by 2051.
But that’s not all! The aging of Kerala's people is striking. The percentage of those aged 60 and above will rocket from 18.6% in 2026 to a whopping 30.6% in 2051. The median age will jump from 37 to 47 years! Kerala is also heading towards hitting the lowest total fertility rate of 1.4 by 2051, meaning fewer babies will be born. Compare this to Bihar, which has the highest share of children (30.3% in 2021) and will still have a large child population of 22.6% by mid-century. Meanwhile, Kerala's child population will shrink to the country’s smallest, at 12.8%.
Kerala currently has the highest percentage of the "oldest-old" (people over 80) at nearly 2% in 2021. By 2051, this will climb to a huge 6.4%, keeping Kerala top in old age, with Tamil Nadu second at 5.2%. The report notes, “According to our projections, Bihar will remain the youngest State in India, while Kerala will remain the oldest.”
The report uses medium, low, and high 'variants' to show different possibilities. Even in the high variant, Kerala’s population dips after 2041, from 3.59 crore in 2026 to 3.61 crore in 2051, showing a clear peak and then a slow fall.
One of the most jaw-dropping points is the fast urbanisation in Kerala. In 2011, 47.7% lived in cities. By 2051, this jumps dramatically to 91.1%! That means more and more people will live in cities, leaving just 8.9% in rural areas.
The study used many trusted sources like Census data, National Family Health Survey, and other government datasets. They carefully analyzed 22 states with more than six million people to paint this detailed demographic future.
So, Kerala is cruising on a wave of population growth and rising longevity for the next two decades. But after 2041, the numbers dip, and India’s oldest state gets even older. Plus, get ready for a big city boom! The report’s data paints a fascinating picture of Kerala’s future – old, wise, and increasingly urban.
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Tags:
Kerala Population
Population Projections
Life expectancy
Aging population
Urbanization
Demographic Trends
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