The world needs to cut 43% of its emission by 2030, compared to 2019 levels, to be within the ‘safe’ limit of global temperature rise, but emissions under the current mitigation target are projected to be only 2% below those levels, shows a new UN synthesis report on countries’ collective climate actions released on Tuesday. The report emphasizes that peaking of global emissions will occur within this decade.

The synthesis report, released ahead of the upcoming UN climate conference (CO) in Dubai, also states that while emissions will not increase after 2030, compared to 2019 levels, they are still not demonstrating a rapid downward trend, which is necessary in this decade to limit warming below the ‘danger’ level.

Limiting temperature rise to 1.5 degrees Celsius by the end of this century is considered safe to avoid the worst impacts of climate change, including more frequent and severe droughts, heatwaves, and rainfall. However, the rise in the earth’s global average surface temperature has already reached around 1.1 degrees C, higher than the pre-industrial average (1850-1900), and 2023 is on track to be the warmest year on record. Under the current level of mitigation actions, the peak temperature for 2100 is estimated to be in the range of 2.1-2.8 degrees C.

Antonio Guterres, UN Secretary-General, said, ‘The world is failing to get a grip on the climate crisis. That is the message of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change’s latest report, which provides yet more evidence that the world remains massively off track to limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius and avoiding the worst of climate catastrophe.’

The synthesis report reveals that if the latest available nationally determined contributions (NDCs), climate actions, are implemented, current commitments will increase emissions by about 8.8% compared to 2010 levels. The report underlines the insufficient nature of national climate action plans in limiting global temperature rise.

Antonio Guterres urges for the acceleration of ‘net zero’ (emission) timelines, with developed countries aiming for the target by 2040 and emerging economies by 2050.

The findings of the report are expected to set the tone for the upcoming UN climate conference in Dubai, where world leaders will discuss and strategize further action on mitigating climate change.