A new wargame led by former NATO, German, and European officials warns that Russia could capture most of its objectives in the Baltic states within days. The exercise, run in December by Die Welt and the German Wargaming Centre, imagined a scenario in October 2026 where Moscow claims a fake "humanitarian crisis" in Kaliningrad. Using this as a pretext, Russia rapidly invaded southern Lithuania, aiming for Marijampolė, a key transport hub. Marijampolė connects the EU and Ukraine via the Via Baltica highway and links Belarus with Kaliningrad. Capturing it would cut NATO's land access to the Baltic states. In the scenario, Russia deployed 15,000 troops, calling their move a limited humanitarian mission. The US refused to activate NATO's Article 5, which requires collective defense. Germany, despite having troops in Lithuania, stayed out. Poland mobilized but did not cross the border. Within days, Russia controlled the Baltic area without sparking a full war. Polish analyst Bartłomiej Kot, who played Poland's prime minister, said, "The Russians achieved most of their goals without moving many of their own units." He added that NATO is conditioned to de-escalate when Russia escalates. Military analyst Franz-Stefan Gady, acting as Russia’s chief of staff, said Russia’s success came from knowing Germany would hesitate. "Deterrence depends not only on capabilities, but on what the enemy believes about our will, and in the wargame my ‘Russian colleagues’ and I knew: Germany will hesitate. And this was enough to win," he said. A companion wargame by Die Welt showed Germany favoring sanctions and civil defense over direct military action. As Russia gained ground, NATO faced rising risks and costs to respond. The exercise gathered top ex-NATO officials, military leaders, and spokespeople. They stressed it was not a prediction but a test of decision-making under pressure. The findings come as Europe worries Russia is a greater threat than before. In 2023, Russian drones and aircraft tested NATO airspace repeatedly. Dutch Defence Minister Ruben Brekelmans said Russia is ramping up troops and weapons near NATO borders. NATO's former spokesperson Oana Lungescu warned that Russia could become more dangerous if Ukraine sees a "bad peace." She called the scenario "very realistic, unfortunately."